Wednesday, November 26, 2008

From Social Democracy to Market Liber...











From Social Democracy to Market Liberalism:
a Global Wave c. 1970–2015


(Professor Avner Offer)




http://www.history.ox.ac.uk/ecohist/synopses/1a_economic_business/socdem_marketlib.htm









The postwar 'golden age' of economic growth also built up American and European welfare states. This settlement was successfully challenged in the 1970s by the 'losers', a coalition of business, taxpayers, consumers, ideologists and social scientists. From this core of discontent, market liberalism has retrieved the intellectual and political hegemony it had previously lost, and continues to advance across the globe. The course investigates the origins, attributes, and drivers of this movement, its successes, failures, and prospects. In particular, it considers the role of human capital, technological change, economic fundamentals, social disruption and cognitive constraints in explaining the New Right, The Washington Consensus, the fall of communism, de-regulation, privatisation, and globalisation.


Watchword: Hindsight.


Primary text:






Lecture slides are mounted only after the relevant session has taken place


1. One: Social democracy, and its crisis. (lecture)


Watchword: four freedoms/five giants


PDF   Lecture slides (full size)


PDF    Lecture slides (suitable for printing)


 


Primary texts:




    Readings:         




    • Alesina, Alberto, and Glaeser, Edward L., Fighting Poverty in the US and Europe : A World of Difference (Oxford, 2004), chs. 1, 6-7.


    • Ansolabehere, Stephen, Rodden, Jonathan, and Snyder Jr., James M., 'Purple America', Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20 (2006), pp. 97-118.


    • Barr, Nicholas, 'Economic Theory and the Welfare State: A Survey and Interpretation', Journal of Economic Literature, 30 (1992), pp. 741-803.



    • Eichengreen, Barry, 'Institutions and Economic Growth: Europe after World War II', in Crafts, Nicholas and Toniolo, Gianni (eds.), Economic Growth in Europe since 1945 (1996), pp. 38-72.
    • Esping-Andersen, Gøsta, The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism (Cambridge, 1990), chs. 2-3.
    • Fraser, Steve, and Gerstle, Gary (eds.), The Rise and Fall of the New Deal Order, 1930-1980 (Princeton, 1989), Introduction.
    • Lindert, Peter H., Growing Public : Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century (Cambridge, 2004).
    • Offer, Avner, Why Has the Public Sector Grown So Large in Market Societies? : The Political Economy of Prudence in the Uk, C.1870-2000 (Oxford, 2003). http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/Economics/History/Paper44/oup44.pdf
    • Pierson, Paul, Dismantling the Welfare State?: Reagan, Thatcher and the Politics of Retrenchment (Cambridge, 1995).
    • Tanzi, Vito and Schuknecht, Ludger, Public Spending in the 20th Century: A Global Perspective (Cambridge, 2000).

    • Timmins, Nicholas, The Five Giants : A Biography of the Welfare State, Rev. & updated edn. (London, 2001).

    Exam question: Was social democracy an historical aberration?





    2. Two: ‘Who’s Afraid of the Welfare State’?

    PDF   A. Offer's seminar slides

    PDF    printable version


    Watchword: losers


    Primary texts:



    • Lynd, Robert Staughton, and Lynd, Helen Merrell, Middletown in Transition : A Study in Cultural Conflicts (New York, 1937), ch. 12.
    • Rand, Ayn, Atlas Shrugged (New York, N.Y., 1963)
    • Freidman, Milton and Rose, Free to Choose: A Personal Statement (1980).
    1. Taxpayers

    2. Working-class whites

    3. Business

    4. Intellectuals

    Readings:



    • Buchanan, James M., and Tullock, Gordon, The Calculus of Consent : Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (Ann Arbor, 1962).
    • Buchanan, James M., and Musgrave, Richard Abel, Public Finance and Public Choice : Two Contrasting Visions of the State (Cambridge, Mass. ; London, 1999).
    • Edsall, Thomas Byrne, and Edsall, Mary D., Chain Reaction : The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York ; London, 1991).
    • Harvey, David, A Brief History of Neoliberalism (Oxford, 2005), chs. 1-3.

    • Lieven, Anatol, America Right or Wrong : An Anatomy of American Nationalism (London, 2004), ch. 3.  


    • Peltzman, Sam, 'Towards a More General Theory of Regulation', Journal of Law and Economics, 9 (1976), pp. 211-240.
    • Pierson, Paul, Dismantling the Welfare State?: Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment (Cambridge, 1994), ch.
    • Phillips, Kevin P., The Emerging Republican Majority (Garden City, N.Y, 1970).
    • Sears, David O., and Citrin, Jack, Tax Revolt : Something for Nothing in California (Cambridge, Mass ; London, 1982).
    • Stigler, George J., 'The Theory of Economic Regulation', Bell Journal of Economics, 2 (1971), pp. 137-146.
    • Sunstein, Cass R., Radicals in Robes (New York, 2005).
    • Micklethwait, John, and Wooldridge, Adrian, The Right Nation : Conservative Power inAmerica (New York, 2004).

    Exam question: Did resistance to the welfare state have anything in common?





    3. Three: ‘The Great Disruption’

    PDF   A. Offer's seminar slides

    PDF    printable version

    Watchword: respect.


    Primary Texts:



    • Anderson, Elijah, Code of the Street : Decency, Violence, and the Moral Life of the Inner City (New York ; London, 1999). [also, Anderson, ‘The Code of the Streets’, Atlantic Monthly, May 1994]
    • Friedan, Betty, The Feminine Mystique (London, 1963).

    1. Women


    2. Crime.

    Readings:


    • Donohue, John , and Levitt, Steven, 'The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116 (2001), pp. 379-420.
    • Elsner, Alan, Gates of Injustice : The Crisis in America's Prisons (Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2004).
    • Fukuyama, Francis, The Great Disruption : Human Nature and the Reconstitution of Social Order (London, 1999)


    • Goldin, Claudia, 'Career and Family: College Women Look to the Past', in Blau, Francine-D., and Ehrenberg,-Ronald-G., eds. Gender and family issues in the workplace  (New York, 1997), pp.20-58 


    • Gottfredson, Michael R., and Hirschi, Travis, A General Theory of Crime (Stanford, Calif, 1990), esp. ch. 5
    • Harcourt, Bernard E., Illusion of Order: the False Promise of Broken Windows Policing (Cambridge, Mass., 2001). 
    • Harcourt, Bernard E., Language of the Gun: Youth, Crime and Public Policy (Chicago, 2006).
    • Hemenway, David, Private Guns, Public Health (Ann Arbor, 2004). 
    • Offer, Avner, The Challenge of Affluence:Self-Control and Well-Being in the USA and Britain since 1850 (Oxford, 2006), Chs. 11, 13-14.
    • Rosenfeld, Richard, 'The Case of the Unsolved Crime Decline', Scientific American, 290 (2004), pp. 82-90

    Supplementary list


    Blumstein, Alfred, and Wallman, Joel (eds.), The Crime Drop in America (Cambridge, 2001).


    Field, Simon, `Trends in Crime and their Interpretation: A Study of recorded Crime in Post-war England and Wales', Home Office Research Study 119 (1990) 


                Freeman, Richard B., 'Crime and the Labour Market' in The Economic Dimensions of Crime, ed. Nigel Fielding, Alan Clarke and Robert Witt  (2000), pp. 150-175. 


    Levitt, Steven D., and Venkatesh, Sudhir Alladi, 'An Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang's Finances', Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 115, 3 (2000), pp. 755-789. 


    Lykken, David T., ‘The American Crime Factory’, Psychological Inquiry, vol. 8, 3 (1997), 261-270. 


    Massey, Douglas S., and Denton, Nancy A., American Apartheid: Segregation and the Making of the Underclass (Cambridge, Mass, 1993). 


    Miller, Jerome, Search and Destroy: African-American Males in the Criminal Justice System (1996)


    van Dijk, Jan J.M., ‘Understanding Crime Rates: On the Interactions Between the Rational Choices of Victims and Offenders’, British Journal of Criminology, vol. 34, no. 2 (1994), 105-121 


    Examination question: Does ‘the great disruption’ have common causes?





    4. Four: Cognitive Dispositions.


    Watchword: fear and loathing

    PDF  A. Offer's Lecture Slides


     PDF    printable version


    Texts:



    • Ford, Richard, Independence Day (London, 1995).
    • Moore, Michael, Bowling for Columbine [film] ([London?], 2003).
    • Roth, Philip, American Pastoral (London, 1997).
    • Shriver, Lionel, We Need to Talk About Kevin (New York, 2003) .
    • ‘The Baptist Faith and Message’, http://www.sbc.net/bfm/bfm2000.asp

    1. Guns

    2. Race

    3. Religion

    4. Individualism

    Readings

    • Almond, Gabriel A.  , Sivan, Emmanuel , and Appleby, R Scott, 'Fundamentalism: Genus and Species', in Marty, Martin E. and Appleby, R. Scott (eds.), Fundamentalisms Comprehended, vol. 5, Fundamentalisms (Chicago, 1995), pp. 399-424. 
    • Bellah, Robert N., Habits of the Heart : Individualism and Commitment in American Life (Berkeley; London, 1985).
    • Cutler, D. M., Glaeser, E. L., and Norberg, K. E., 'Explaining the Rise in Youth Suicide', Harvard - Institute of Economic Research, Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Discussion Paper no. 117 (Cambridge, MA, 2001).
    • Edelstein, Michael, 'War and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century', in Engerman, Stanley L. and Gallman, Robert E. (eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of the United States (New York, 2000), vol. 3, pp. 329-405.
    • Edsall, Thomas Byrne, and Edsall, Mary D., Chain Reaction : The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes on American Politics (New York ; London, 1991).
    • Frank, Thomas, What's the Matter with Kansas? : How Conservatives Won the Heart of America (New York, N.Y., 2004).
    • Greeley, Andrew and Hout, Michael, The Truth about Conservative Christians (Chicago, 2006), chs. 4, 8-10.
    • Hacker, Jacob S., The Great Risk Shift: the Assault on American Jobs, Families, Health Care and Retirement and How You Can Fight Back (Oxford, 2006), esp. chs. 1-3, 6. 
    • Harcourt, Bernard E., Guns, Crime and Punishment in America (New York, 2002).
    • Hemenway, David, Private Guns, Public Health (Ann Arbor, 2004).
    • Iannacone, Laurence R., ‘Heirs to the Protestant Ethic? The Economics of American Fundamentalists', in Marty, Martin E. and Appleby, R. Scott (eds.), Fundamentalisms and the State: Remaking Polities, Economies, and Militance, vol. 3, Fundamentalisms (Chicago, 1993), pp. 342-366. 
    • Kasser, Tim, and Kanner, Allen, Psychology and Consumer Culture : The Struggle for a Good Life in a Materialistic World (Washington, D.C., 2003), esp. ch. 2.  
    • Lieven, Anatol, America Right or Wrong : An Anatomy of American Nationalism (London, 2004)., chs. 3-4.
    • Offer, Avner, The Challenge of Affluence : Self-Control and Well-Being in the United States and Britain since 1950 (Oxford, 2006), ch. 12.  


    • Phillips, Kevin P., American Theocracy (New York, 2006), Part II, esp. ch. 4. 
    • Seligman, Martin- E. P., 'Why Is There So Much Depression Today? The Waxing of the Individual and the Waning of the Commons', in Ingram, R. E. (ed.), Contemporary Psychological Approaches to Depression (New York, 1990), pp. 1-9 .
    • Stearns, Carol Zisowitz, and Stearns, Peter N., Anger : The Struggle for Emotional Control in America's History (Chicago, 1986).
    • Twenge, J. M., 'The Age of Anxiety? Birth Cohort Change in Anxiety and Neuroticism, 1952-1993', Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79 (2000), pp. 1007-1021.
    • Veroff, Joseph, Douvan, Elizabeth Ann Malcolm, and Kulka, Richard A., The Inner American : A Self-Portrait from 1957 to 1976 (New York, 1981), ch. 10.

    Examination Question: The shift to individualism --- cause or effect?







        5. Five: Empire and War.


        Watchword: evil empire

        PDF      Avner Offer's Lecture

        PDF      Printable version

        Texts:



        • Stanley Kubrick, ‘Dr Strangelove’ [film]
        • Robert McNamara, ‘The Fog of War’ [film]
        • Graham Greene, The Quiet American (1955), ch. XXX


        1. Imperial ambitions.


        2.  Technology and empire. 


        3.  Imperial overstretch?



        Readings:



        • Brzezinski, Zbigniew, Power and Principle : Memoirs of the National Security Adviser, 1977-1981 (New York, 1983).
        • Brzezinski, Zbigniew, The Choice : Global Domination or Global Leadership (New York, 2004).
        • Chomsky, Noam, Hegemony or Survival : America's Quest for Global Dominance (London, 2004).
        • Edelstein, Michael, 'War and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century', in Engerman, Stanley L. and Gallman, Robert E. (eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of the United States. Volume 3. The Twentieth Century., vol. 3 (Cambridge, New York and Melbourne, 2000), pp. 329-405.
        • Edgerton, David E.H., Warfare State: Britain, 1920-1970 (Cambridge, 2006).  


        • Enthoven, Alain C., and Smith, K. Wayne, How Much Is Enough? : Shaping the Defense Program, 1961-1969 (New York ; London, 1971).
        • Fishback, Price, 'Seeking Security in the Post-War Era', in Price Fishback, et al., Government and the American Economy: A New History (Chicago, forthcoming 2007), ch. 17.
        • Halberstam, David, The Best and the Brightest (London, 1972).

        • Higgs, Robert, 'The Cold War Economy: Opportunity Costs, Ideology, and the Politics of Crisis', Explorations in Economic History, 31 (1994), pp. 283-312. 


        • Kennedy, Paul M., The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers : Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London, 1988).
        • Lind, Michael, The American Way of Strategy (Oxford, 2006).
        • Nye, Joseph S., Bound to Lead : The Changing Nature of American Power (New York, 1990).
        • Nye, Joseph S., Soft Power : The Means to Success in World Politics (New York, 2004).

         Examination question: Why has America resorted to ‘hard power’?





        6. Six: Rational expectations.


        Watchword:  science

        PDF   Avner Offer's Lecture slides

        PDF   Printable version

        Primary Texts:



        • Wanniski, Jude, The Way the World Works (1978), ch. 

        1. The New Classical Macro-economics.


        2. 'Voodoo economics'


        3. The new classical worldview


        Readings:



        • Amadae, S.M., Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy: The Cold War Origins of Rational Choice Liberalism (Chicago and London, 2003), ch. 1. 
        • Bleaney, M.F., The Rise and Fall of Keynesian Economics: An Investigation of its Contribution to Capitalist Development (Basingstoke, 1985), ch. 3. 
        • Frank, Thomas, One Market under God: Extreme Capitalism, Market Populism and the End of Economic Democracy (London, 2002), ch. 1.
        • Friedman, Milton and Friedman, Rose D., Free to Choose: A Personal Statement (London, 1990). 
        • Glyn, Andrew, Social Democracy in Neoliberal Times: the Left and Economic Policy since 1980 (Oxford, 2001).
        • Glyn, Andrew, Capitalism Unleashed: Finance, Globalization and Welfare (Oxford, 2006).
        • Hoover, Kevin D., The New Classical Macroeconomics (Aldershot, 1992), vol. 1, Introduction, select articles. 
        • Klamer, Arjo, The New Classical Macroeconomics: Conversations with the New Classical Economists and their Opponents (Brighton, 1984), Introduction and ch. 1. 
        • Krugman, Paul, Peddling Prosperity (1994), chs. 1-3, 8.
        • Prasad, Monica, The Politics of Free Markets: the Rise of Neoliberal Economic Policies in Britain, France, Germany and the United States (Chicago and London, 2006).
        • Snowdon, Brian, and Vane, Howard R., Modern Macroeconomics : Its Origins, Development and Current State (Cheltenham, 2005).

         Examination question:  Why does high theory carry high authority? 





        7. Seven: Privatisation, deregulation and the Washington Consensus.


        Watchword: competition


        PDF     A. Offer's seminar slides


        PDF     Printable version


        Texts: 



        • Williamson, John, 'What Washington Means by Policy Reform', in Williamson, John (ed.), Latin American Adjustment: How Much has Happened? (Washington, DC, 1990) 
        1. The Thatcher Privatisation.

        2. USA de-regulations.


        3. The Washington Consensus and its enemies.


        Readings:



        • Amadae, S. M., Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy: The Cold War Origins of Rational Choice Liberalism (2003), ch. 1.
        • Duménil, Gérard, Lévy, Dominique, and Jeffers, Derek, Capital Resurgent: Roots of the Neoliberal Revolution (Cambridge, Mass., 2004).


        • Glyn, Andrew, Capitalism Unleashed : Finance Globalization and Welfare (New York ; Oxford, 2006), esp. chs. 1-2, more according to interest. 


        • Drechsler, Wolfgang, 'The Rise and Demise of the New Public Management', Post-Autistic Economics Review, 32 (2005).
        • Drew, Elizabeth, Politics and Money : The New Road to Corruption (New York, 1983).
        • Florio, Massimo, The Great Divestiture: Evaluating the Welfare Impact of the British Privatizations 1979-1997 (Cambridge, Mass., 2004), chs. 2, 10.
        • Frank, Thomas, One Market under God : Extreme Capitalism, Market Populism, and the End of Economic Democracy (London, 2002), chs. 1-2.
        • Krugman, Paul, Peddling Prosperity (1994), pt. 1 and ch. 8.
        • Lawson, Nigel, The View from No. 11 : Memoirs of a Tory Radical (London, 1993), chs. 18-20.
        • Millward, Robert, Private and Public Enterprise in Europe: Energy, Telecommunications and Transport, 1830-1990 (Cambridge, 2005), ch. 15.
        • Newbery, David M. G., Privatization, Restructuring, and Regulation of Network Utilities (Cambridge, MA ; London, 2000), chs. 1-2, 9. 
        • Prasad, Monica, The Politics of Free Markets: the Rise of Neoliberal Economic Policies in Britain, France, Germany and the United States (Chicago and London, 2006), ch. 2.
        • von Weizsäcker, Ernst U., et. al., Limits to Privatization: How to Avoid too much of a Good Thing (London, 2005), pp. 351-362. 


        • Wolmar, Christian, Broken Rails : How Privatisation Wrecked Britain's Railways, 2nd, rev. edn. (London, 2001).

        Examination question: Who gained from Privatization?





        8. Eight: Transition: The market test of market liberalism


        Watchword: liberalisation

        PDF   A. Offer's seminar slides

        PDF   Printable version

        Texts: 



        1. Russia and Eastern Europe. 


        2. China.


        3. India. 


        Readings:



        • Åslund, Anders, and Layard, P. R. G., Changing the Economic System in Russia (London, 1993).
        • Boone, Peter, Gomulka, Stanislaw, Layard, P. R. G., and London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance., Emerging from Communism : Lessons from Russia, China, and Eastern Europe (Cambridge, Mass. ; London, 1998).
        • Buck, Trevor, and et al., 'Different Paths to Economic Reform in Russia and China: Causes and Consequences', Journal of World Business, 35 (2000), pp. 379-400.
        • Cohen, Stephen F., Failed Crusade : America and the Tragedy of Post-Communist Russia (New York ; London, 2000).
        • Jha, Prem Shankar, The Perilous Road to the Market : The Political Economy of Reform in Russia, India and China (London, 2002).
        • Joshi, Vijay, Little, Ian Malcolm David, and World Bank., India : Macroeconomics and Political Economy, 1964-1991 (Delhi ; Oxford, 1998).

        • Joshi, Vijay, and Little, Ian Malcolm David, India's Economic Reforms, 1991-2001 (Oxford, 1996). 


        • Lin, Justin Yifu, 'Transition to a Market-Oriented Economy: China Versus Eastern Europe and Russia' in Proceedings of the Iea Conference Held in Tokyo, Japan (Hayami,-Yujiro; Aoki,-Masahiko, eds. The institutional foundations of East Asian economic development, 1998), pp. London Macmillan Press; in association with International Economic Association, 1998; 215-47.
        • Linden, Carl, and Prybyla, Jan S., Russia and China: On the Eve of a New Millennium (Prybyla. New Brunswick, N.J. and London, 1997).
        • Reddaway, Peter, and Glinski, Dmitri, The Tragedy of Russia's Reforms : Market Bolshevism against Democracy (Washington, D.C., 2001).
        • Rhode, Paul Webb and Toniolo, Gianni, The Global Economy in the 1990s: a Long-Run Perspective (Cambridge, 2006).
        • Rodrik, Dani, and Subramanian, Arvind, 'From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition', Harvard University (Cambridge, Mass., 2004). http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/IndiapaperdraftMarch2.pdf
        • Rodrik, Dani, 'Goodby Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion', Journal of Economic Literature, vol . 44, Dec. (2006).  http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/Lessons%20of%20the%201990s%20review%20_JEL_.pdf

        • Stiglitz, Joseph E., Globalization and Its Discontents (London, 2002), chs. 3. 5. 



        • Sachs, Jeffrey, The End of Poverty : How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime (London, 2005).
        • Zagha, Roberto, Nankani, Gobind T., and World Bank., Economic Growth in the 1990s : Learning from a Decade of Reform (Washington, DC, 2005).

        Examination Question: Why was liberalisation more successful in China than in Russia?





        9. Nine: Encompassing Change


        Watchword: foresight.


        Primary texts:



        • Galbraith, John Kenneth, The Affluent Society (London, 1958).
        • Gans, Herbert J., The Levittowners : Ways of Life and Politics in a New Suburban Community (London, 1967).
        • Moore, Gordon, 'Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits', Electronics, 38 (1965).
        • Packard, Vance Oakley, The Waste Makers (London, 1961).
        • Toffler, Alvin, Future Shock (London, 1970).

         1.  Dynamics of technology. 


         2.  From market adjustment to shocks. 


         3.  Consequences for governance and cooperation. 


        Readings:



        • Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Hitt, Lorin M., 'Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance', Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14 (2000), pp. 23-48. 
        • Clark, Tom, Elsby, Mike, and Love, Sarah, 'Twenty-Five Years of Falling Investment? Trends in Capital Spending on Public Services', Institute of Fiscal Studies [Briefing note no. 20], 20 Nov. 2001 (London, 2001). http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn20.pdf

        • Jackson, Kenneth T., Crabgrass Frontier : The Suburbanization of the United States (New York ; Oxford, 1985), chs. 14-15. 
        • Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (New York, 2005).
        • Leggett, Jeremy, The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe (New York, 2005).

        • Millward, Robert, 'State Enterprise in 20th Century Britain', in Toninelli, Pierangelo Maria (ed.), The Rise and Fall of State Enterprises in Western Countries (Cambridge, 2000), pp. 157-184. 

          OR 

        • Millward, Robert, Private and Public Enterprise in Europe : Energy, Telecommunications and Transport, 1830-1990 (Cambridge, 2005), chs. 14-15.  
        • Offer, Avner, Why Has the Public Sector Grown So Large in Market Societies? : The Political Economy of Prudence in the Uk, C.1870-2000 (Oxford, 2003). http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/Economics/History/Paper44/oup44.pdf 
        • Offer, Avner, The Challenge of Affluence: Self-Control and Well-Being in the USA and Britain since 1850 (Oxford, 2006), Chs. 3-4,8-10.
        • Stern, Nicholas, et. al., The Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change (Cambridge, 2006).

        Examination question: Is the evidence for consumption bias convincing?


          





         


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